SPC MD 1374



MD 1374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS

MD 1374 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Areas affected...Much Of New Mexico and far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 012013Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of large hail and damaging
winds possible this afternoon, however watch issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Diabatic heating has resulted in surface temperatures
warming into the mid 80s F amid enough residual moisture (dew point
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s) and weak inhibition, to
promote convective development in terrain-favored locations,
particularly along the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and
Sacramento/Guadalupe Ranges. Surface-based CAPE has correspondingly
increased, with a few pockets near 1500 J/kg. Continued daytime
heating should progressively allow SBCAPE values to increase,
nearing 2000 J/kg in a few spots. Weak easterly flow near the
surface combined with predominantly northerly flow aloft is
producing 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear across the region.

The current expectation is for ongoing developing convection to
continue increasing in coverage, with perhaps an isolated supercell
or two emerging where the underlying thermodynamic/kinematic
environment is supportive. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats with the strongest cells. Given the relatively dry
boundary layer across the region and aforementioned pockets of
higher instability, severe storm coverage is expected to remain
fairly isolated. Convective trends will continue to be monitored,
but watch issuance is not anticipated at the present time.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 08/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31820644 32000846 34180818 35880731 36470550 35370452
            31950473 31080547 31820644 

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