SPC MD 1377



MD 1377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE…CENTRAL/EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

MD 1377 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Areas affected...much of New York State...central/eastern
Pennsylvania...and northern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021800Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convective coverage/intensity is
expected through the afternoon.  A WW issuance will be considered
for parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and satellite imagery indicate a few areas
of deepening convection from near SYR to near GFL in northern
portions of New York State.  Another area of convection was located
near BDL in Connecticut.  This deepening convection is likely
attributed to a few factors, including surface
heating/destabilization, subtle low-level confluence/convergence
over the open warm sector, and the approach of a mid-level shortwave
trough centered over western New York.  Instability increases with
southward extent, with MUCAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg across
eastern Pennsylvania and between 1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a
warm front located from near MSS to near BAF.  The expectation is
that convection will continue to gradually deepen in an environment
with sufficient shear for updraft rotation, with damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a few tornadoes possible given veering flow with height
and appreciable low-level shear - especially near the warm front. 
These expectations are further supported by recent CAMs, with a
couple of corridors most likely to materialize into strong to severe
convection - one across northern New York State and another across
Massachusetts/Connecticut and vicinity.

Over the course of the afternoon, one or two WWs will be considered
for at least portions of this region pending convective trends.

..Cook/Bunting.. 08/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...

LAT...LON   44077618 44397577 44757520 44917459 44887401 44407371
            43787320 43177259 42487208 41677217 41157295 41207359
            41137451 40697543 40437600 40587646 41267660 42057633
            42797630 43497635 44077618 

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