SPC MD 1379



MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

MD 1379 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Areas affected...Central/Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021928Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
winds expected this afternoon/evening. One or two watches may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows broad formation of cumulus in
response to strong diabatic heating over terrain-favored areas of
the central/southern Rockies. Farther east, low-level southeasterly
up-slope flow has yielded surface dew point temperatures in the mid
to upper 50s F. The diabatic heating is resulting in strong
low-level lapse rates, approaching 8-9 C/km, and MLCAPE values near
or exceeding 1500 J/kg along a north-south oriented corridor
paralleling the Front Range. Meanwhile, moderate north-northwesterly
flow aloft combined with the low-level southeasterly flow is
resulting in 40-45 kt of ambient effective shear.

The aforementioned trend in convective development is expected to
continue into the afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms over
a broad region. With time, storms should move off the high terrain
and into the plains east of the Front Range. As this occurs, storms
are expected to intensify in the more favorable CAPE/shear parameter
space. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
Given these expectations, one or two watches will be considered for
parts of the region.

..Karstens/Bunting.. 08/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35600563 38080605 40670583 40920486 39730424 35560326
            34810363 34580498 35600563 

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