SPC MD 1380


MD 1380 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Far Southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022216Z - 030015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a
couple more hours across parts of northwest Texas and far southwest
Oklahoma. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.
The threat is expected to be too localized and brief for weather
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
place across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms
have developed on the western edge of the moist airmass in parts of
northwest Texas late this afternoon. Surface dewpoints in northwest
Texas are generally in the 50s F which is contributing to MLCAPE of
800 to 1200 J/kg, according to the RAP. In spite of this, the
Frederick, Oklahoma WSR-88D VWP has about 30 kt of 0-6 km shear.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for
an isolated wind damage threat. The stronger cores could also be
accompanied by hail. The threat should eventually diminish as
surface temperatures gradually cool early this evening.

..Broyles/Hart.. 08/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32919935 32670041 32650117 32910154 33280174 33980174
            34410163 34820113 35010050 35039981 34879927 34209890
            33459886 32919935 

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