SPC MD 1381


MD 1381 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Areas affected...Western New England and Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Tornado Watch 410...

Valid 022245Z - 030045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 410 continues.

SUMMARY...Storm coverage has remained isolated across WW 410. This
trend is expected to continue this evening. Where storms can mature,
such as near the NY/MA/CT border, damaging wind gusts and a tornado
or two will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage within WW 410 has remained quite
isolated. With the strongest forcing for ascent north of the
Canadian border, this is not likely to change significantly this
evening. A cluster of storms has developed within the last hour and
a half near the NY/MA/CT border vicinity. One of those storms in
northwestern CT has exhibited persistent mid-level rotation and a
brief TDS around 6 PM EDT. These storms exist within a baroclinic
zone where effective SRH is maximized. While poor low-level lapse
rates may hinder stronger low-level rotation, any mature supercell
that enters this favorable environment would still be capable of
producing a tornado. Farther north, cumulus have continued to slowly
deepen in the western Adirondacks. There is remaining favorable
environment within far northeaster NY near the international border.
While buoyancy is somewhat more limited that far north, low-level
winds remain slightly backed. Overall, storm coverage is expected to
remain isolated with potential for damaging wind gusts and a tornado
or two where storms can develop and mature. The threat is expected
to diminish by 9-10 PM EDT.

..Wendt.. 08/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   43347530 43787538 44527545 44947493 45017315 44877260
            43987257 42617241 41747239 41067342 40827427 40697497
            40837542 41037551 41827544 43347530 

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