SPC MD 1384



MD 1384 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING

MD 1384 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Areas affected...central/southeastern Montana and northern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031820Z - 031915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will pose an isolated damaging-wind risk
this afternoon and early evening.  A WW issuance is not anticipated
at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased over the
past hour or so - particularly across northern and central Montana
amidst a weak upslope flow regime.  Instability is limited across
the region - primarily due to only modest low-level moisture (near
50F dewpoints supporting 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE).  Nevertheless, lapse
rates are steep across the region and the approach of an upstream
mid-level shortwave and continued low-level upslope flow will foster
additional isolated to scattered convection.  These storms will
initially develop across higher terrain, but spread
eastward/southeastward through the day in response to appreciable
mid-level flow and deep shear.  Although one or two linear complexes
may evolve from the ongoing convection, the limited nature of
downstream instability and weak low-level flow should keep any
severe threat generally isolated.  A WW is not currently anticipated
at this time.

..Cook/Kerr.. 08/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48471021 48830950 48950875 48510758 46950618 44950511
            44250551 43850656 43760784 44710886 46320996 47131004
            48471021 

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