SPC MD 1386



MD 1386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WYOMING…MUCH OF COLORADO…AND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO

MD 1386 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Areas affected...central/southern Wyoming...much of Colorado...and
northern/northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032012Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of
gusty winds approaching severe thresholds this afternoon and
evening.  A WW issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated
nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite imagery indicates development of
convection initially along higher terrain across the discussion area
this afternoon.  Though the storms have initially developed in areas
containing a relatively dry boundary layer, the combination of
modest low-level upslope flow beneath roughly 30 knots of
north-northwesterly mid-level flow will allow for propagation of
initial convection into lower-terrain areas where steep mid-level
lapse rates (8.5C/km) will allow for a risk of damaging wind gusts
and hail.  A slightly higher risk for damaging wind gusts will
develop with any storms that can organize into linear segments and
propagate southward, though the overall risk should remain isolated
enough to preclude a WW issuance through the evening hours.

..Cook/Kerr.. 08/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...

LAT...LON   43000760 43580753 43640657 42760567 41470479 39550415
            38600371 37230364 36210386 35610463 35420559 35790628
            36870652 39130641 43000760 

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