SPC MD 1395



MD 1395 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 416… FOR MUCH OF NJ…SOUTHERN NY/HUDSON VALLEY…NEW YORK CITY…WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG ISLAND…SOUTHERN CT

MD 1395 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Areas affected...Much of NJ...Southern NY/Hudson Valley...New York
City...Western/Central Long Island...Southern CT

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 041513Z - 041645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes currently continues across much
of NJ, with the threat then transitioning into southeast
NY...NYC...and western Long Island over the next two hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and radar/satellite imagery
place the center of Tropical Storm Isaias over the central DE/MD
border. Over the past several hours, rain band arcing from about 80
miles northeast of the center to about 130 miles due east of the
center has been responsible for numerous low-topped supercells, a
few of which maintained enough strength once ashore to produce
tornadoes. The deeper cells within the band offshore do not
currently appear to have the same structure or intensity as these
earlier storms. However, the environment remains strongly sheared,
particularly at low-levels. Recent KDIX VAD data has 700-800 m2/s2
of 0-1 km SRH and weather spotters recently confirmed a tornado in
Ocean County NJ. 

Best estimates of the motion of the band is
northward/north-northeastward at 35-40 kt. This motion brings the
band through much of central NJ by 1600Z and into central Long
Island by 1700Z. Storm motion of storms within the band is
north-northwestward around 40 to 50 kt, with right-moving supercells
moving slightly slower and more northerly.

..Mosier.. 08/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON   40047540 41097455 41327395 41347335 41137276 40807282
            40337370 39457438 40047540 

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