SPC MD 1396


MD 1396 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Areas affected...Northern CT...Southern VT...Southern NH...MA...RI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 041534Z - 041700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly supportive of
tornadoes over the next few hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be
issued within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Wind fields are expected to strengthen significantly
across the area over the next few hours as Tropical Storm Isaias
continues northward into southern New England. A very moist and
modestly buoyant air mass is already in place, and a few stronger
storms have been noted over northern portions of the region in the
past hour. These storms were likely a result of the strong warm-air
advection in place, and were elevated above the boundary-layer as a
result. Air mass along the coastal areas is already supportive of
surface-based storms, with more area expected to become supportive
as this higher theta-e air moves further inland. 

Thus far, most of the deep convective has remained within a band arc
80 to 100 miles from the center. This band is quickly moving
northward, and will likely reach portions of southern New England by
17Z. Additionally, any development ahead of this band will be in a
very favorable kinematic environment. Given this potential, a
tornado watch will likely be issued within the next hour for much of
southern New England.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 08/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41637196 41967335 43087297 42617015 41117066 41637196 

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