SPC MD 1397



MD 1397 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING…WESTERN NEBRASKA…EASTERN COLORADO…FAR WESTERN KANSAS…NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO…AND PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES

MD 1397 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Areas affected...southeastern Wyoming...western Nebraska...eastern
Colorado...far western Kansas...northeastern New Mexico...and
portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 041852Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convection will increase in coverage and intensity across
much of the discussion area this afternoon with an attendant severe
hail/wind threat.   Convective trends are being monitored for a
possible WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery indicates a gradual increase
in towering cumulus over higher terrain, with a few cells beginning
to show radar echoes and lightning over southeastern Wyoming and
northeastern New Mexico.  The cells are in an environment
characterized by steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints, which is
supporting 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE along and east of the Front Range. 
Additionally, low-level upslope flow - most focused near/northeast
of a surface flow near COS and weak mid-level shortwaves near the
region were providing lift for initiation along western portions of
the discussion area.

Over time, storms are expected to mature into a mix of clusters,
cells, and linear segments owing to northwesterly flow aloft and
40-45 knots of deep shear across the region.  Veering of flow with
height is most pronounced across eastern/northeastern Colorado
northeast of the surface low and may also provide enough ambient
vorticity for storms to rotate.  Large hail (perhaps significant in
north-central through eastern Colorado) and damaging wind gusts are
the primary threats with this activity, with the only lingering
concern for issuing a WW being the extent of convective coverage and
attendant severe risk.  A landspout tornado or two cannot be
completely ruled out - especially early in the convective life cycle
across northeastern Colorado.  Convective trends are being monitored
for a possible WW issuance by/before 20-21Z.

..Cook/Kerr.. 08/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   42320606 42580522 42440337 41810261 39170178 35950095
            35490181 35630348 36360451 38170507 40680584 41950617
            42320606 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.