SPC MD 1400


MD 1400 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the central and southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418...

Valid 042216Z - 050015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail is possible with a cluster of
splitting supercells east of Fort Collins, CO. This activity will
pose the greatest risk for hail this evening as it moves SSE/SE this
evening. Increasing convective coverage is expected in southeastern
CO where storms could grow upscale and move into the TX/OK
Panhandles later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The most robust convection in WW 418 exists within
northeastern Colorado, just east of Fort Collins. There, a cluster
of intense supercell storms have exhibited potential for large/very
large hail per regional radar imagery with a measured 2 inch
hailstone reports near Carr, CO. While weak capping does remain to
the east, these mature cells are expected to continue for the next
few hours to the southeast. Storm motions will be generally to the
SSE/SE, but, as has already occurred, a few left-moving storms may
move more easterly. Large/very large hail will remain a concern with
these storms along along with damaging wind gusts. In time, this
activity may grow more upscale where wind gusts would become more of
a concern.

Farther south, where deep-layer shear is weaker, storms have thus
far not intensified. However, with convective coverage beginning to
increase, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should fuel potential for large
hail and damaging wind gusts. High-resolution guidance continues to
indicated this area is favored for upscale growth into southeastward
propagating linear segment. Given the deep boundary layer and
multicellular mode, this solution is plausible. How far to the
southeast the severe threat will exist this evening is still
somewhat in question, but this area will need to be monitored for
possible local WW extensions.

..Wendt.. 08/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37470485 38660487 39910525 40850545 42060532 42390414
            40580221 38530177 36330194 35740215 35640310 36420450
            36660480 37470485 

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