SPC MD 1401



MD 1401 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA

MD 1401 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central and western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 042305Z - 050100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
possible late this afternoon and early evening. Activity should
weaken and dissipate after sunset. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a surface
boundary likely with some influence of an MCV in central South
Dakota. Deep-layer shear is roughly perpendicular to the boundary
and around 40 kts. Despite modest MLCAPE near 1000-1500 J/kg, a few
storms may intensify and produce large hail and locally damaging
wind gusts. With capping to the south, it is uncertain how far these
storms will progress. If storms can cluster and grow upscale, a
marginally greater wind threat would develop. Again, any cluster
would likely propagate along the boundary where MLCIN would be
minimized. With limited upper-level support, this activity will
likely diminish after sunset. No WW is expected.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42120338 42980174 43820063 44180028 43999954 43259943
            42589978 41970025 41770056 41170215 41260297 41720348
            42120338 

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