SPC MD 1405



MD 1405 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

MD 1405 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051737Z - 051930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread multi-cell storm development with the
possibility of a damaging wind gust or two will be possible this
afternoon. A weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite data showed showers and weak
thunderstorms  developing along a broad frontal zonal located along
the spine of the southern Appalachians. Additional storm development
appears likely this afternoon, given warm and moist surface
conditions, lift along the front, and developing orographic
circulations. Upper-air support for convection is weak and is
forecast to continue decreasing as the closed low over southern
Canada continues to retreat northward. Effective shear is forecast
to remain relatively weak, despite the moderately unstable
conditions present with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. As a result, a
multi-cellular storm mode is expected. A few of the stronger storms
may develop sufficiently strong downdrafts to generate near severe
criteria outflow winds. Due to the limited coverage and severe
potential, a weather watch is likely not needed.

..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35838344 36678208 37058127 37138053 36817992 36087983
            35578044 34118247 33858311 33738382 34018407 34398426
            35038431 35838344 

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