SPC MD 1406


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Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

Areas affected...northern/northeastern Colorado...southeastern
Wyoming...and western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 051827Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection over the higher terrain of Colorado/Wyoming
will migrate eastward/southeastward and deepen through the
afternoon, posing a hail/wind threat in areas downstream.  A WW will
be considered later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convection was noted across higher terrain in
north-central Colorado and south-central Wyoming in the past hour or
so.  These storms are in a steep-lapse-rate environment, with 8-9
deg C/km and boundary layer moisture contributing to weak to
moderate  instability (2000-3500 J/kg MUCAPE) in areas immediately
downstream of initiating convection.  The combination of weak
low-level upslope flow beneath 40 knot westerly mid/upper flow will
allow for developing convection to migrate eastward through the I-25
corridor and into lower elevations over the course of the afternoon,
with initial supercellular structures and clusters potentially
capable of large (perhaps significant) hail and damaging wind gusts.
 A tornado can also not be completely ruled out despite high cloud
bases.  Eventually, one or two linear segments will evolve from
initial convection while moving toward the CO/KS/NE border regions
toward evening.

Pending convective coverage, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may need to
be coordinated with affected offices in the 19-21Z time frame. 
Trends are being monitored.

..Cook/Kerr.. 08/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42570628 42650501 42260365 41970272 41630220 41310193
            40680184 39660207 38830235 38160331 38020426 38250517
            39020602 39890639 40880638 42570628 

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