MD 1407 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

Areas affected...southeast texas southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 052012Z - 052145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms perhaps capable of strong downburst winds
will be possible this afternoon and early evening. A weather watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...20z radar observations showed a resurgence in
convective intensity associated with a cluster of thunderstorms that
moved across eastern North Texas earlier this morning. These storms
are associated with a convectively enhanced shortwave trough on the
edge of the ridge of high pressure over the Southwest. Additional
storm development appears probable across western Louisiana and far
southeast Texas given subtle forcing for ascent from the shortwave,
a moderately unstable airmass of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and
little remaining convective inhibition. Vertical shear is expected
to remain weak with stronger mid-level flow lagging behind the
ongoing storms limiting the potential for convective organization.
However, consolidating downdrafts could be strong enough to produce
isolated damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. Limited
coverage and the forecast uncertainty suggest a weather watch is
likely not needed.

..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29969554 30719540 31599473 31689357 31349264 29749141
            29549132 29419178 29489205 29709349 29249473 29969554 

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