August 5, 2020
SPC MD 1407

MD 1407 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020 Areas affected...southeast texas southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052012Z - 052145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few storms perhaps capable of strong downburst winds will be possible this afternoon and early evening. A weather watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...20z radar observations showed a resurgence in convective intensity associated with a cluster of thunderstorms that moved across eastern North Texas earlier this morning. These storms are associated with a convectively enhanced shortwave trough on the edge of the ridge of high pressure over the Southwest. Additional storm development appears probable across western Louisiana and far southeast Texas given subtle forcing for ascent from the shortwave, a moderately unstable airmass of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and little remaining convective inhibition. Vertical shear is expected to remain weak with stronger mid-level flow lagging behind the ongoing storms limiting the potential for convective organization. However, consolidating downdrafts could be strong enough to produce isolated damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. Limited coverage and the forecast uncertainty suggest a weather watch is likely not needed. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 08/05/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29969554 30719540 31599473 31689357 31349264 29749141 29549132 29419178 29489205 29709349 29249473 29969554