SPC MD 1411



MD 1411 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN AL…NORTHERN GA INTO WESTERN SC…WESTERN/CENTRAL NC…SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VA…AND FAR SOUTHERN MD

MD 1411 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern AL...northern GA into
western SC...western/central NC...southern/central VA...and far
southern MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061808Z - 062045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly isolated damaging winds
should persist through the early evening. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Convection that has formed along the spine of the
southern/central Appalachians this afternoon should continue to
spread generally eastward as a weak upper trough persists over the
eastern CONUS. The area from northern GA into central VA has become
moderately unstable owing to diurnal heating of a rather moist
low-level airmass, with MLCAPE 1500-2500+ J/kg estimated by latest
mesoanalysis. A nearly stationary surface front was also analyzed
across this region. Additional storms may form along this boundary
through the early afternoon. Low-level flow is expected to remain
weak, but around 20-30 kt of southwesterly mid-level winds and
similar values of effective bulk shear should promote modest storm
organization.

Clusters and multicells should be the dominant storm modes, with
steepened low-level lapse rates encouraging strong/gusty downdraft
winds to the surface. Current expectations are for most of these
winds to remain sub-severe, but isolated damaging wind gusts may
still occur with the stronger storms. Slightly better mid-level flow
is forecast to be present over parts of southern/central VA in the
vicinity of the weak stalled front. A greater concentration of
storms may ultimately materialize through the early evening across
this region, perhaps posing a slightly better chance for severe wind
gusts. Regardless, the overall severe threat still appears fairly
marginal/isolated, with watch issuance unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 08/06/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   33938173 33468344 33558504 33868590 34498574 35028412
            36068194 37508024 38557901 38787816 38727724 38467663
            38027612 37567625 36867697 35727839 34358067 33938173 

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