August 6, 2020
SPC MD 1413

MD 1413 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEASTERN IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 1413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020 Areas affected...much of western/central Montana and a small part of northeastern Idaho Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061953Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...High-based convection capable of damaging wind gusts will expand northeastward across much of the discussion area this afternoon/early evening. A WW issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Lightning-producing convection has deepened within a regime characterized by deep southwesterly flow aloft. Steep low- and mid-level lapse rates are in place across the region, with values exceeding 9 C/km - especially in areas undisturbed by convective downdrafts where temperatures are currently 80+ F. The lapse rates and appreciable storm movement will allow for occasional downbursts near convection that could produce wind damage - especially near clusters or linear segments that can organize through the early evening. Lift associated with mid-level shortwave troughs migrating across the region should also promote convective development through the afternoon as well. The threat should remain isolated enough to preclude any WW issuances, although convective trends will be monitored. ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/06/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 48311024 48461146 48081285 47351405 46091442 44981415 44731239 45051008 45170854 45620749 46740759 47970881 48311024