SPC MD 1419



MD 1419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY

MD 1419 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Fri Aug 07 2020

Areas affected...central North Dakota and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072309Z - 080115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development across central North
Dakota may be accompanied by local risk for gusty/damaging winds
and/or hail, but WW issuance seems unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a line of
TCU/developing CB over west-central North Dakota, along a weak
surface cool front. The storm development is being aided by
large-scale ascent brushing the area -- per WV imagery -- associated
with a vigorous upper low near the Alberta/Saskatchewan border
moving east-northeastward with time.  With a moist warm sector ahead
of the boundary, and 1500 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, expect
isolated/vigorous storms to evolve, fueled by the available
instability.

With that said, overall storm coverage is expected to remain
limited.  Subsidence in the wake of the MCV now over northwestern
Minnesota this afternoon has contributed to weak capping -- remnants
of which should limit storm coverage/intensity to some degree --
especially into the evening, in tandem with diurnal
cooling/stabilization of the boundary layer.  In addition,
deep-layer flow -- though veering with height -- remains relatively
modest in intensity, with only 20 to 30 kt westerlies indicated at
mid levels.  Thus, without more substantial kinematic support for
convective organization, and the aforementioned, minor hindrance of
lingering capping, overall severe risk will likely remain both
limited and isolated, likely precluding any need for WW issuance.

..Goss/Dial.. 08/07/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45920274 47150182 47870175 48930052 48899908 47909866
            46689855 45700081 45710170 45920274 

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