SPC MD 1423


MD 1423 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081826Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and large hail may continue
this afternoon with a small cluster of storms moving eastward. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has persisted early this
afternoon into parts of southwestern MN. Evidence of mid-level
rotation, the development of a rear-inflow jet, and a couple recent
tree damage reports all suggest that some of the stronger downdraft
winds associated with this cluster are reaching the surface. Even
with low clouds remaining prevalent downstream across southern MN,
steep mid-level lapse rates and modest diurnal heating of a moist
low-level airmass are supporting MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg per latest
mesoanalysis estimates. Though uncertainty regarding cap strength
remains, there is increasing concern that this small cluster may
continue eastward across parts of southern MN through the afternoon
given the large reservoir of buoyancy available. Damaging, severe
wind gusts and isolated large hail would be the main threats. If
this ongoing convection can maintain itself over the next hour or
so, then a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch may need to be considered

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44369604 44709576 45079581 44989375 44499363 43889380
            43859502 44369604 

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