SPC MD 1426



MD 1426 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL CO INTO NORTHWEST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST NE

MD 1426 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

Areas affected...Extreme east-central CO into northwest KS/far
southwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082155Z - 090000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible into early
evening, with a threat of locally severe wind gusts and perhaps
marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, thunderstorms have recently developed from
extreme east-central CO into northwest KS near a surface boundary,
with strong heating on either side of the boundary continuing to
erode SBCINH across the area. While this area is south of the
stronger flow, mid/upper-level southwesterlies are sufficiently
strong to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, which will support at
least brief updraft organization with any sustained cells. 

A hot, well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates
will support a threat of gusty outflow winds (potentially severe)
with the strongest storms. Some hail cannot be ruled out as well,
especially with any cells that can move eastward or northeastward
into a region of somewhat greater buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
versus 500-1000 J/kg where storms have initiated). Given the
marginal deep-layer shear and greater downstream CINH, the magnitude
and areal extent of the threat are expected to remain rather
limited, so watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38690260 39330235 39750212 39990196 40050188 40140164
            40230086 40210050 39950042 39380046 38940073 38640127
            38540159 38440209 38360260 38690260 

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