SPC MD 1429


MD 1429 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020

Areas affected...North-central/northeast
NE...south-central/southeast SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...422...

Valid 090451Z - 090615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421, 422

SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging wind will continue into
the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...At 0445Z, the longer-lived thunderstorm cluster that
moved across southwest SD/northwest NE and the more recent intense
development across central NE have consolidated into a loosely
organized MCS that is moving into north-central NE/south-central SD.
This MCS should continue to propagate northeastward into eastern
SD/northeast NE, where MLCAPE is maximized (2500-4000 J/kg) and
MLCINH is a relative minimum per recent mesoanalyses. 

This system recently produced a 53 kt gust at KICR in south-central
SD, and at least sporadic severe gusts should continue overnight
given strong instability and presence of a relatively organized cold
pool. There remains some potential for a corridor of more
concentrated damaging wind, though the system may struggle to
maintain organization given relatively weak low-level inflow and
deep-layer shear and increasing MLCINH with time as the boundary
layer continues to cool. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out
given the strong instability, though the increasingly linear storm
mode should maintain damaging wind as the primary threat overnight.

..Dean.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44190009 44509910 44739844 44749784 44679745 44449720
            44219705 43379692 42819707 42379735 41979799 41779857
            41659907 41649968 41599958 41879957 42019937 42109941
            42559947 42889965 43129974 43379992 43660018 44190009 

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