SPC MD 1434



MD 1434 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND FAR NORTHERN IL

MD 1434 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern IA into southern WI
and far northern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091830Z - 092030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind and hail threat may exist with
storms moving eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A small north/south oriented line of storms has
recently developed over far northeastern IA on the southern fringes
of large-scale ascent associated with an MCV over MN. Recent VWPs
from KARX show some enhancement to the southwesterly flow in the 0-3
km layer. The airmass downstream of ongoing convection continues to
destabilize, with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg present per 18Z
mesoanalysis estimates. There appears to be some potential for
modest storm organization through the afternoon as this activity
spreads eastward across southern WI and perhaps far northern IL.
Current expectations are for the deep-layer shear to remain fairly
modest, with an isolated damaging wind threat possible given the
mainly linear mode. Some hail may also occur given the moderate to
locally strong instability present owing to steep mid-level lapse
rates. The overall severe threat will probably remain too
isolated/marginal to warrant watch issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42028911 42029003 42439141 42719129 43659139 43769028
            43648923 43328867 42238871 42028911 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.