SPC MD 1436


MD 1436 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern WI and Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092046Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...There still appears to be some potential for severe storms
to develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...The large-scale ascent associated with a remnant MCV
over MN has supported isolated strong to severe storms across far
northwestern WI into western Lake Superior and the MN Arrowhead
earlier this afternoon. More robust storm development has not yet
occurred across the still destabilizing warm sector over much of
northern WI and western/central Upper MI. It still appears possible
that strong to severe convection may yet occur across this region
over the next couple of hours, as some recent signs of convective
development have been noted across far northwestern WI immediately
ahead of the MCV. If storms were to develop and remain sustained,
they would encounter a favorable thermodynamic environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Around 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear would support storm organization, with
sufficient low-level flow for perhaps some tornado concern with
semi-discrete cells. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds would
be a threat as convection develops eastward across northern WI into
western/central Upper MI later this afternoon and into the evening.
It still remains somewhat unclear how many storms will form across
this region. Given this uncertainty, watch issuance remains
possible, but signs of increasing convective coverage and intensity
would be needed for watch probabilities to increase further.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   45349173 45879192 46609179 46949101 46968939 47158880
            47028834 46328831 45368865 45138909 45139087 45349173 

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