SPC MD 1437


MD 1437 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Southeast ND...Northeast SD...Western MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...

Valid 092209Z - 092345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe thunderstorms will likely persist
into the early evening. Some threat will spread south/east of WW
423, but additional watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...At 22Z, a broken line of thunderstorms is ongoing from
near International Falls southwest into northwest MN and southeast
ND. Some weakening has been noted along the northern part of the
line, while the strongest cells further southwest continue to show
some modest organization. The airmass downstream of the northwest MN
convection has struggled to recover this afternoon, which is
expected to lead to a general weakening trend with time as storms
approach the eastern edge of the watch. For this reason, watch
issuance downstream into MN is currently considered unlikely. 

Further to the southwest, storms have recently developed across
extreme northeast SD, with additional attempts at development noted
along the front into a larger portion of northeast SD. Moderate
instability and effective shear of 20-30 kt may result in a
localized threat of hail/wind across northeast SD into the early
evening, but the coverage and magnitude of the threat is expected to
remain rather limited.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   45159905 46529769 47809600 48369448 48629391 48519368
            48169349 47509399 47019430 46229481 45549530 45129599
            45009649 44909725 44909798 44979884 45159905 

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