SPC MD 1438


MD 1438 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas into southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092234Z - 100030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple severe
hailstones may accompany the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not
expected given the isolated, brief nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...A southward surging outflow boundary, originating from
an earlier MCS/associated cold pool, has recently resulted in the
initiation of isolated, mainly multicellular convection across
portions of southeast KS into southern MO. Temperatures in the 90s,
with low to mid 70s dewpoints, characterize the airmass ahead of the
outflow boundary, resulting in 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Weak deep-layer
flow and resultant vertical shear suggest that even the more intense
storms will struggle to organize and sustain themselves in the
ambient environment. However, latest mesoanalysis depicts locally
stronger low-level shear in close proximity to the boundary, which
may encourage brief instances of updraft rotation. As such, brief
periods of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple severe hail stones
may exist. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain
isolated and short-lived overall, with the latest HRRR runs not
depicting much in the way of further convective development. As
such, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Dial.. 08/09/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38469692 38159571 37759340 37719171 38039048 37789034
            37639030 37379031 37019045 36699068 36399103 36159193
            36199260 36629367 37019511 37559645 38469692 

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