SPC MD 1445



MD 1445 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST SD…NORTHEAST NE…NORTHWEST IA

MD 1445 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast NE...Northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 100819Z - 101015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage early
this morning, along with the risk of a few severe thunderstorms. 
Trends will be monitored for upscale growth and possible WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed in
the past hour across southern SD and northeast NE.  This area is
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, and in region of
isentropic lift behind the cold front - mainly in the 2-4 km layer. 
Ample CAPE is indicated in forecast soundings over this region,
along with steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer
shear for convective organization.  Isolated instances of hail are
the primary threat for now.  However, CAM solutions have suggested
the potential for one or more of the clusters to grow upscale and
become a bowing complex later this morning.  If this trend begins to
unfold, a WW may be needed to cover the downstream threat.

..Hart.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43190137 43849774 43639521 42069610 42310073 43190137 

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