SPC MD 1446


MD 1446 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101142Z - 101345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail will continue across southern WI,
and the threat for damaging wind gusts may increase as well. Trends
are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted most of the
night over southeast MN has recently shown signs of better
organization and quicker forward motion. Recent KARX radar imagery
suggests much of this activity currently remains behind the storm
outflow. However, storm development has occurred along the outflow
across the southern flank of the cluster, suggesting the potential
that the cluster may begin to become rooted closer to the surface.
If that occurs, the potential for damaging wind gusts will increase.
Confidence in that scenario is low, but trends will be monitored
closely. Additionally, regardless of whether or not the damaging
wind threat increases, the potential for large hail will persist.
The downstream environment is strongly buoyant, with recent
mesoanalysis and RAP soundings depicting steep mid-level lapse rates
and MUCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Convective outlook probabilities
will be increased downstream of this system with the upcoming 13Z
Convective Outlook and trends are being monitored closely for
potential watch issuance.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44189120 44429041 44148858 43038884 43389106 44189120 

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