SPC MD 1448



MD 1448 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IA

MD 1448 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Portions of western/central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 101340Z - 101445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe/damaging wind threat should increase across parts
of western/central IA this morning. Watch issuance will likely be
needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A small, bowing MCS along the NE/IA border has recently
produced a measured 50 kt wind gust at KSUX. Very steep mid-level
lapse rates observed on the 12Z OAX sounding are supporting ample
instability downstream of this convection across much of
western/central IA. Even though outflow from prior convection has
surged southward across this area, it still appears probable that
strong to severe wind gusts will be able to penetrate the shallow
near-surface stable layer and reach the surface given the large
reservoir of instability present. The stronger mid-level flow
associated with an upper trough will generally remain across MN and
northern IA, but there should still be sufficient enhancement to the
mid-level winds across central IA for continued
organization/maintenance of the ongoing MCS. Accordingly, the threat
for severe/damaging wind gusts is expected to increase across parts
of western/central IA, and a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch
downstream is likely soon.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41649590 42519485 43039481 43179332 42849302 41679247
            40669251 40639559 41649590 

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