SPC MD 1453



MD 1453 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND U.P. MICHIGAN

MD 1453 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin and U.P. Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 101744Z - 101845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions becoming more favorable for convective
development this afternoon, with a risk for damaging winds and large
hail. Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows some clearing occurring across
parts of central Wisconsin, allowing for some diabatic heating and
temperatures into the mid 80s F amid rich boundary layer moisture
(dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s). This has resulted in
moderate destabilization of the atmosphere, with MLCAPE nearing 2500
J/kg. Westerly flow aloft combined with low-level southerly flow is
producing 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear across the region.

Given the thermodynamic and kinematic environmental indices, any
storms that develop in this region would pose a threat for damaging
winds and isolated large hail. Recent CAM guidance supports the
notion of convection developing and becoming more widespread in
coverage by mid-afternoon. Therefore, conditions will continue to be
monitored for probable watch issuance in the next 1-2 hours.

..Karstens/Grams.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43328951 43549067 45458953 46588826 46448615 45408668
            43568795 43328951 

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