SPC MD 1456



MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL IN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN OH

MD 1456 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southern Lower MI into northern/central
IN and far northwestern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 101928Z - 102100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A substantial severe wind threat will likely increase this
afternoon across parts of southern Lower Michigan and into
northern/central Indiana with a line of storms moving quickly
eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...A bow echo will continue moving rapidly eastward across
northern IL and far southern WI this afternoon while producing
widespread damaging winds of 70-100 mph. The airmass across southern
Lower MI and northern/central IN continues to destabilize this
afternoon, with surface temperatures having warmed into the mid to
upper 80s, and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates observed on the 18Z ILX sounding have likely
spread over at least the western portions of southwestern MI and
western IN. Resultant MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg and around 25-30 kt
of effective bulk shear will likely support the maintenance of the
severe bow echo as it moved eastward across these areas this
afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, some 75+ mph, will
likely produce numerous to widespread damaging winds, and a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out with circulations embedded within the
line. This substantial severe wind risk is expected to increase
within the next couple of hours, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will be issued to address this threat.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40418705 40928687 41818688 43008706 43078441 41688442
            40748484 40138526 40138679 40418705 

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