SPC MD 1457


MD 1457 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Much of Missouri...far Eastern Kansas...and
Southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101938Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few multi-cell clusters should develop this afternoon,
with damaging winds/hail possible. Trends will be monitored for
possible watch issuance across parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar trends show a variety of
convective development processes occurring across the region. 

  1) An early morning band of severe convection continues to move
northeastward into northeast Missouri, where outflow from the
ongoing MCS has largely stabilized the atmosphere. These storms may
end up merging with the MCS across this area into central Illinois,
where MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg resides. 

  2) A persistent band of elevated convection from northwest
Missouri into southeast Kansas is beginning to show signs of rooting
into the boundary layer. This uptick in intensity is also evident in
visible satellite. This trend appears to pose the greatest
short-term threat.

  3) Boundary layer cumulus is developing across south-central
Missouri amid strong diabatic heating (temperatures in the low 90s
F) and rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the low to
mid 70s F). This process has yielded MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg.

Given the widespread destabilization that has occurred, and the
convective trends noted, convection should become more widespread
throughout the afternoon. Despite ample instability, winds aloft are
generally weak, with only about 20 kt of effective bulk shear
present, with perhaps some enhancement near the MCS in central
Illinois. Thus storms should form into a few mutli-cell clusters,
posing a threat damaging winds and large hail. Convective trends
will be monitored for potential watch issuance this afternoon.

..Karstens/Grams.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36799475 37959571 40179296 40118766 36938868 36609234

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