SPC MD 1459



MD 1459 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427… FOR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF THE U.P. AND L.P. OF MICHIGAN

MD 1459 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin and portions of the U.P. and L.P.
of Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

Valid 102046Z - 102215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds/hail continues across WW
427. A downstream watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few strong to severe storms have
developed across central/northern parts of WW 427, with convective
activity associated with a severe MCS now moving into southern parts
of the watch area. This activity is occurring in an environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and 30-35 kt of effective
bulk shear, which is sufficient to sustain organized convection
capable of damaging winds and severe hail.

Storms are expected to continue moving from west to east across the
watch area in advance of a cold front, with perhaps some increase in
coverage. Uncertainty exists in whether or not the convection will
persist as it crosses northern parts of Lake Michigan and entering
into the L.P. of Michigan. Presently there exists a corridor of
enhanced instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and nearly homogeneous
effective shear (30-35 kt). These conditions are forecast to persist
into the evening hours. Thus, should trends in convective
coverage/intensity persist, a downstream watch may be considered for
parts of the region.

..Karstens.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   46318421 46088384 45238329 43978394 43508473 43458600
            43428687 43738765 45738678 46458562 46668501 46318421 

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