SPC MD 1460



MD 1460 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

MD 1460 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...Far northern Texas Panhandle into southern
Kansas...northern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and extreme
northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102150Z - 102315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Vigorous convective development and intensification is
underway across parts of the southern Plains. Damaging gusts are the
primary threat, with some severe hail possible as well. Convective
trends will be monitored for the need of one or more WWs to address
the increasing severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Rapid pulse cellular and multicellular development has
been underway over the past couple of hours, situated within an
instability axis ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Steep
lapse rates (7.5-9 C/km) throughout a deep layer of the troposphere
are currently supporting up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While tropospheric
flow is weak overall, noticeable veering in the sfc-700 mb layer is
promoting some deep-layer shear for marginal storm organization.
Upscale growth of a few convective clusters via cold pool mergers
are possible, where more concentrated damaging wind threats may
ensue. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for
upscale organization and the need of potential WW issuance over the
next couple of hours.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36410246 37600140 38340098 38079591 37719440 36989241
            36269206 35549243 35659363 36009600 36219955 36410246 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.