SPC MD 1461



MD 1461 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428…429… FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…INDIANA…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI…NORTHERN KENTUCKY…AND WESTERN OHIO

MD 1461 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...southern lower Michigan...Indiana...southern
Illinois...east-central Missouri...northern Kentucky...and western
Ohio

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...429...

Valid 102217Z - 110015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428, 429
continues.

SUMMARY...Widespread damaging wind gusts will continue across WW 428
and 429, and eventually will spread into adjacent/downstream areas. 
One or more new WW issuances may be needed to cover the fast-moving
threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined bowing MCS
moving quickly eastward/southeastward at 40 to 45 kt across the
Midwest, with the main convective line now east of Chicago, and
moving toward Grand Rapids/Indianapolis/St. Louis.  

While moderate instability remains just downstream of the
convection, which will allow storms to remain intense over the next
hour, instability lessens with eastward and southeastward extent
east of the existing watches.  Still, given the very well-organized
nature of this convective system, an organized/bowing band is likely
to continue east and southeast of the existing watches.  While
severe risk should begin to diminish/become more isolated this
evening, a new WW issuance -- into eastern lower Michigan and
western Ohio, may be required.  Some risk may also spread southeast
of the existing watches across the Ohio River into northern Kentucky
as well --- which could also require WW consideration.

..Goss.. 08/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...
LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   43048691 43378580 43498416 43448286 40488291 38608382
            37848869 38179132 38959084 39778880 40538723 41788671
            42968704 43048691 

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