SPC MD 1464



MD 1464 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428…430…431… FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN…SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA…WESTERN OHIO…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI…AND PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY

MD 1464 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...southern and eastern
Indiana...western Ohio...southern Illinois...southeastern
Missouri...and parts of western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...430...431...

Valid 110029Z - 110200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428, 430,
431 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds continues with the large,
bowing MCS crossing the Midwest/Ohio Valley.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the still-well-organized bowing
MCS crossing the Midwest/Ohio Valley region.  Some weakening has
been noted over the past 1 to 2 hours with northern portions of the
line -- i.e. lower Michigan, eastern Indiana, and now western Ohio. 
Here, weaker instability is indicated with eastward extent.  Thus,
while locally gusty/damaging winds will likely persist with stronger
updrafts within the convective band, risk should remain
limited/isolated for the next few hours, before further weakening
occurs.

Meanwhile, a pool of moderate mixed-layer CAPE (3000 to 3500 J/kg)
extends from southeastern Missouri into southern portions of
Illinois and Indiana and the western half of Kentucky.  Here, the
convective band remains stronger, moving southeastward toward the
Ohio River at this time.  However, the deep-layer wind field weakens
with southward extent, which should temper the overall severe risk
somewhat, despite favorable instability.  Still, locally damaging
winds will likely continue for at least the next few hours as
convection gradually spreads into/across the northern/western
Kentucky vicinity.

..Goss.. 08/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...
ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   42868472 41708342 38678400 37088655 36668996 37689082
            39098901 39418624 40638520 41818488 42868472 

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