SPC MD 1465



MD 1465 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX AND MID SOUTH

MD 1465 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Areas affected...Parts of the Ozark Plateau into the Ark-La-Tex and
Mid South

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111734Z - 112000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development through mid to late
afternoon will mainly result in locally heavy rainfall, but there
could also be at least some increase in potential for locally strong
wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is
ongoing, as inhibition for boundary-layer parcels characterized by
seasonably high moisture content (lower/mid 70s F surface dew
points) and sizable CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) decreases with
daytime heating.  This is generally focused near a compact,
convectively generated vorticity center to the west-northwest of the
Missouri Bootheel vicinity, east-southeastward along a weak surface
frontal zone across western into middle Tennessee.  A wind shift
trailing to the southwest of the cyclonic vorticity center, across
northern Arkansas is also becoming a focus for increasing
thunderstorm development, while more substantive thunderstorm
development is already well underway to the east and southeast of a
broader convectively generated cyclonic vorticity center over
northeastern Oklahoma.

This is all occurring near the northwestern periphery of
strong/deeper low-level subtropical ridging, and generally
within/beneath broader-scale mid-level subtropical ridging. 
Mid-levels are generally warm, with weak lapse rates and deep-layer
ambient westerly mean flow only on the order of 10 kt.

The overall environment appears generally unsupportive of
appreciable severe weather potential.  However, a continued gradual
increase and intensification of convective development seems
probable through the afternoon.  And it is possible that merging
convection and upscale convective growth could be accompanied by at
least some increase in potential for locally strong surface gusts
aided by heavy precipitation loading.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36019164 36409030 35608853 35028936 34939025 34829195
            34549298 34029347 33579460 33859581 34699554 34899455
            35559399 35999345 36319273 36019164 

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