SPC MD 1471



MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY

MD 1471 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Areas affected...Portions of Virginia northeastward through New
Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121715Z - 121915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually deepening convection will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.  The isolated nature of
the threat precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Strong buoyancy has developed along and south of a weak
surface boundary over southern Pennsylvania/New York, where
mid/upper 70s F surface dewpoints was contributing to 3000+ J/kg
MUCAPE.  This unstable, uncapped airmass has supported isolated to
scattered convective development, although deep layer shear is quite
weak.  The environment should support occasional, 'pulse-type'
storms that pose a brief damaging-wind threat but migrate/propagate
erratically in and near the discussion area through the afternoon. 
The threat should be too isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, and
the threat should persist through the early evening until nocturnal
boundary layer stabilization commences.

..Cook/Kerr.. 08/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...
GSP...

LAT...LON   37108104 37968012 39527797 40177628 40587480 40457400
            39937396 39367449 38677605 37847718 36757863 36068003
            35868125 36238174 37108104 

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