SPC MD 1472



MD 1472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA

MD 1472 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far southern South Dakota into western
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122228Z - 130000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or severe hailstones may accompany
the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to remain
relatively sparse overall.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have initiated off of the higher
terrain in far eastern Wyoming over the past few hours, with a
gradual uptick in coverage and intensity noted. 20Z RAP forecast
soundings depict a deep, dry boundary layer, with 7-9 C/km deep
tropospheric lapse rates contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, but
also considerable CINH given the aforementioned mixing. As such,
individual convective cells may struggle in obtaining longevity, as
also depicted by some of the latest HRRR runs. However, given
adequate buoyancy and the well mixed boundary layer, stronger storms
may efficiently transport momentum downward to support damaging
gusts. Some of the deeper cores could also briefly support severe
hail given the steeper lapse rates extending up to 500 mb. Storms
are expected to diminish after sunset, as CINH rapidly increases.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41080376 42030364 43000307 43970201 44320075 44260012
            44119986 43949977 43699981 43169996 41700079 40920154
            40360192 40400268 40690353 41080376 

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