SPC MD 1476


MD 1476 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Areas affected...northwest KS into southwestern/central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132006Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and
strong wind gusts are possible through this evening across portions
of western NE/KS.

DISCUSSION...Isolated towering cumulus have been developing along
the surface trough/dryline oriented north-to-south across western NE
and KS. A few lightning flashes have been noted with a cell that has
deepened considerably over Cheyenne County KS and across McPherson
County NE within the last 30-45 minutes. Isolated convection may
continue to develop along the instability gradient where midlevel
capping has sufficiently eroded due to a combination of strong
heating and low-level east/southeasterly upslope flow transporting
upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints westward to near the KS/NE/CO

18z RAP forecast soundings, modified with current surface
conditions, indicate only weak inhibition across the region. Deep
layer flow is not strong, but sufficient directional shear is
resulting in effective shear values around 25-30 kt. This should be
sufficient for briefly organized updrafts. Very steep midlevel lapse
rates and increasing instability with eastward extent will further
result in robust updrafts capable of large hail. Steep low level
lapse rates could also enhance downdrafts, and strong outflow winds
also are possible. While a couple of severe storms are possible,
watch issuance is uncertain at this time given cellular activity is
expected to remain fairly isolated. Additionally, inhibition
increases rapidly with eastward extent further from the trough
axis/dryline, limiting longevity and aerial extent of the threat.

..Leitman/Kerr.. 08/13/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38860110 38610159 38630197 38930204 39760207 40330191
            41430156 42120106 42440057 42420004 42179959 41649945
            41039955 40699969 40189995 39250079 38860110 

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