SPC MD 1484


MD 1484 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southern ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

Valid 141014Z - 141145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and severe wind threat continues
mainly across parts of southern ND.

DISCUSSION...Storm intensity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
has fluctuated over the past couple of hours, but recently a couple
of storms across southern ND have strengthened. This convection will
likely develop east-northeastward along a sharp elevated instability
gradient. As a shortwave trough continues eastward across the
northern Plains, mid-level winds will strengthen further. Related
effective bulk shear will likewise remain rather strong over this
region (50-55+ kt). This will easily support supercells with both a
large hail and severe wind threat. A lead supercell in south-central
ND has a MRMS MESH hail core estimate around 2 inches. The trailing
storm near the ND/SD border as of 1014Z appears to be mostly
orthogonal to the mid-level southwesterly flow, with some recent
evolution into a small bowing cluster. This cluster produced a 65
mph wind gust earlier very near the ND/SD line, and similar wind
speeds may continue to occur as it tracks generally
east-northeastward across parts of southern ND over the next couple
of hours.

..Gleason.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   45980190 46440210 46930063 47129921 47039854 46339850
            46069959 45970093 45980190 

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