SPC MD 1485



MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN

MD 1485 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND and northwestern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 141106Z - 141300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated
large hail should increase this morning as storms move
northeastward. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms currently in southern ND is
expected to advance northeastward this morning as a pronounced
shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern Plains. A
surface low remains centered over central SD, with a front extending
northeastward across eastern ND into northwestern MN. It appears
likely that the ongoing convection will advance along a sharp
elevated instability gradient into eastern ND over the next couple
of hours, which roughly coincides with the surface boundary. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and increasing low-level moisture are
supporting MUCAPE of 1500-3500 J/kg generally along and south of the
front. Strong deep-layer shear will continue to foster storm
organization, and both large hail and severe/damaging winds may
occur. Other convection is ongoing in a low-level warm advection
regime and along an outflow boundary across parts of far
southeastern ND into western MN. Current expectations are for the
greatest severe threat to be focused in a fairly narrow corridor
along/north of this ongoing warm advection activity, and along/south
of the front. The severe/damaging wind threat may increase across
parts of eastern ND and northwestern MN later this morning if storms
across south-central ND continue to grow upscale into a small
cluster. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears likely in the
next hour or so to account for this increasing severe threat.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   46319681 46419776 47039832 47589846 48149760 48609639
            48779530 48689475 48239456 47609471 46549543 46369593
            46319681 

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