SPC MD 1486



MD 1486 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435… FOR FAR EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN

MD 1486 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...far eastern ND into northwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435...

Valid 141519Z - 141645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible across
northwest MN over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will continue
shifting east/northeast from near the Red River into northwest MN
through midday. Storms currently near Fargo resulted in a peak
measured wind gust of 48 kt at KFAR, and 51 kt on the NDAWN site at
Fargo. This intensity may continue over the next couple of hours as
the mature bow shifts east/northeast. However, overnight convection
across much of northern/central MN has stunted the northward push of
higher boundary layer moisture that exists further south across
southern MN. Temperatures and dewpoints in the low 60s extend across
much of northern MN, with strong capping noted in regional 12z RAOBs
and 14z mesoanalysis. 

While strong shear and upper forcing will remain over the region,
contamination of the downstream boundary layer by overnight
convection will likely prevent widespread severe. The expectation is
that sporadic strong gusts to near 50-55 kt may continue the next
couple of hours until the cluster weakens and/or moves north of the
international border.

..Leitman.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   47799703 48189642 48409539 48349438 47729431 46379468
            46019521 45769585 45869665 46019749 46319773 46459777
            47799703 

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