SPC MD 1489



MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS

MD 1489 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Parts of western Kansas and adjacent portions of
the Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142022Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms may develop through
4-6 PM MDT, accompanied by the potential to produce locally severe
hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident near the
dryline, where seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content is
contributing to large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, in the presence
of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.  As inhibition
continues to weaken with further boundary-layer heating, focused
low-level convergence may support the initiation of a couple of
storms near/east of the Colorado/Kansas state border area into
adjacent portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle.  Although deep-layer
westerly to northwesterly mean ambient flow is generally light
(around 10 kt), veering of winds with height may be contributing to
marginally sufficient shear for supercell structures capable of
producing severe hail.  

Locally strong downbursts are also possible, accompanied by strong
to severe surface gusts.  And, as outflow spreads away from
initiating convection, additional short-lived convective development
is possible across the adjacent plains, but storms should otherwise
tend to slowly drift south/southwestward.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38440208 39330134 39570057 39150051 37930089 37540109
            37190113 36740139 36530181 36920217 38440208 

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