SPC MD 1492



MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436… FOR EASTERN NE…WESTERN IA…SOUTHWEST MN

MD 1492 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Western IA...Southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436...

Valid 142235Z - 150000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 436
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat will shift into eastern
portions of ww436 over the next few hours. It's not entirely clear
when/if a new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed downstream.

DISCUSSION...Convection that developed earlier ahead of the cold
front has struggled to intensify, and in many cases this pre-frontal
activity has actually weakened, or dissipated. Forecast soundings
suggest this may be due to a pronounced warm layer observed near
700mb. As a result, frontal convergence appears instrumental in
maintaining robust updrafts. Over the last few hours, strongest
thunderstorms reflect this with near-frontal storms exhibiting more
intensity. For these reasons, severe threat should be tied closely
to the surface wind shift. Strongest convection should advance from
west to east with this boundary.

..Darrow.. 08/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41439792 44379595 44379433 41439636 41439792 

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