SPC MD 1495


MD 1495 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

Valid 150201Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440

SUMMARY...A large hail and damaging wind threat will persist across
central Kansas for a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...The current cluster of supercells in north central
Kansas has shown no sign of weakening to this point and has produced
2.5 inch hail as recently as 120Z. Temperatures remain in the upper
80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s ahead of this activity. SPC
mesoanalysis shows these storms moving into a reservoir of 4500 J/kg
MLCAPE with no inhibition suggesting these storms may persist for a
few more hours as they move south. Additional evidence for this is
the new storm which has formed in southern Osborne county (ahead of
the cold front) in the last 45 minutes showing that surface based
buoyancy is still present. Averaging the 00Z RAOB from DDC and TOP
suggests effective shear around 30 to 35 kts and mid-level lapse
rates of 8.8 C/km. This will continue to support a threat for large
hail and perhaps some damaging winds. Without any upper-level
support and no low-level jet, expect these storms to weaken slowly
as the boundary layer cools over the next several hours. A small
severe thunderstorm watch was issued downstream of this activity
given the expectation for it to persist for a few more hours.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 08/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39369891 39569847 39689805 39629750 39099710 38389732
            38159797 38129873 38499892 39369891 

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