SPC MD 1497


MD 1497 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Areas affected...Southern Missouri...northern
Arkansas...southeastern Kansas...northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151900Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms are expected to develop along outflow
boundaries in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas within the
next 1-2 hours. Damaging downburst winds will be the primary hazard
with isolated large hail also possible. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from convection earlier today has
settled across northern Arkansas into southeastern Missouri. As
convection has decayed, a secondary outflow boundary has developed
and moved into south-central Missouri. Observed 12Z LZK and SGF
soundings showed steep mid-level lapse rates and convective
temperatures in the low 90s F. Current surface observations suggest
that MLCIN should be eliminated within the next 1-2 hours. Lift
along the northern boundary is stronger per visible satellite.
Isolated storms are expected most likely along this more
well-defined northern boundary. MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg, with
locally higher values in southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri,
and effective shear of 25-30 kts should promote weakly organized
storms capable of strong/damaging downbursts and perhaps isolated
large hail. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated and
disorganized enough that no WW is anticipated this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35339408 35679505 36279582 37139585 37539500 37469371
            37399278 37259250 38169098 38499055 38238971 37039005
            36169078 35259230 35339408 

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