SPC MD 1499



MD 1499 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA

MD 1499 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 152014Z - 152115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to move out of southern Manitoba
and intensify across northern Minnesota. The environment will favor
supercells/multicells capable of large hail and isolated damaging
winds. A WW may need to be considered by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has begun to form in south-central
Manitoba. Continued surface heating and modest ascent southeastward
of this activity should lead to this activity deepening and
intensifying this afternoon. Low-level moisture is somewhat limited,
but is maximized in northwest Minnesota with mid 50s F to low 60s F.
Cold temperatures aloft will support 1000-1500 MLCAPE as surface
heating continues into the afternoon. Long, straight hodographs with
effective shear values of 30-40 kts will favor splitting
supercells/multicells capable of large hail and isolated damaging
winds. Upper-level forcing appears sufficient to support
widely-scattered to scattered storms. A WW may need to be considered
by 21Z.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   49129704 49139616 49209472 48339229 48329210 47469184
            46799228 46459360 46609434 47489555 48359660 49129704 

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