SPC MD 1500



MD 1500 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO

MD 1500 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado into northeastern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152017Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may gradually strengthen while
spreading east and southeast of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this
afternoon.  Some of these may be accompanied by locally strong
surface gusts, and perhaps some hail.  It currently seems unlikely
that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue
to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Aided largely by orographic forcing, thunderstorm
development is now well underway near and just north through east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  This is occurring in the presence
of generally light (10 kt or less) westerly to west-northwesterly
deep-layer ambient mean flow.  Deep-layer shear is also weak, but
modest northwesterly high-level flow could enhance stronger, deeper
convective development.

The boundary layer to the immediate east of the higher terrain
appears to be undergoing deepening mixing, with somewhat modest CAPE
on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.  However, this environment probably
will be conducive to the risk for locally strong surface gusts, with
at least some potential for further intensification as convection
encounters better low-level moisture  with eastward progression into
the plains, closer to or after 00Z.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38370469 38680377 38060318 37200293 35950326 35070408
            34680500 35050535 36380441 38370469 

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