SPC MD 1501



MD 1501 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA

MD 1501 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Areas affected...Parts of southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152043Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The evolution of a westward advancing cluster of
thunderstorms near or just south of the international border is
possible through late afternoon.  This may be accompanied by
potential for strong wind gusts and blowing dust across parts of
southern Arizona.

DISCUSSION...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm development is
underway across the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona and
northern Sonora, where light westerly low-level flow, beneath light
east-northeasterly to easterly mid-level flow may aid propagation
toward lower elevations through early evening.  With westward
extent, away from the highest terrain, a hot and deeply-mixed
boundary layer appears to become increasing moist and supportive of
sizable CAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg.

As convection propagates into this air mass, various model output
indicates that considerable upscale growth is possible by 23-01Z. 
If this occurs, consolidation of surface cold pools may contribute
to an organizing cluster, accompanied by increasing potential for
strong surface winds along the westward surging gust front.  While
the bulk of this convection may remain south of the international
border, it is possible that the surface cold pool could impact
adjacent portions of southern Arizona, with strong wind gusts and
blowing dust.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

LAT...LON   32331089 32050988 31850937 30740864 29841012 31371253
            32331089 

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