SPC MD 1509



MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS

MD 1509 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into central Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 161856Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Destabilization and cumulus development is occurring along
a weak cold front in the central Plains. Large to very large hail
will be possible with initial storms that develop in the next 1-2
hours. One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of cumulus have developed and begun to deepen
along a weak cold front from northeast Colorado into central
Nebraska. Temperatures have risen to the upper 80s and low 90s F
with dewpoints holding in the mid 50s in Colorado to upper 60s F in
central/southern Nebraska. 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE has been
objectively analyzed across this area with around 30 kts of
effective shear across the boundary. With initial development
expected to be cellular and regional 12Z observed soundings sampling
7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, large to very large hail will be
possible early in the convective cycle. Storms are expected to grow
upscale with time into one or more clusters/MCSs. The most likely
place for this to occur is near the CO/KS border where storm
coverage may be greater along a remnant frontal boundary. Damaging
wind gusts will also be possible, particularly with any MCS that
develops. One or more severe thunderstorm watches are likely this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   41700036 41969872 42019827 41779800 41439782 40919783
            40639808 39689891 38959982 38470098 38220191 38140216
            38230262 38450349 39470375 40500343 41700036 

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